Win probability

[1] The art of estimating win probability involves choosing which pieces of context matter.Baseball win probability estimates often include whether a team is home or away, inning, number of outs, which bases are occupied, and the score difference.There are a limited number of possible states, and so baseball win probability tools usually have enough data to make an informed estimate.American football win probability estimates often include whether a team is home or away, the down and distance, score difference, time remaining, and field position.The first win probability analysis was done in 1971 by Robert E. Machol and former NFL quarterback Virgil Carter.
BaseballAmerican footballRobert E. MacholquarterbackVirgil Carterhome advantageWin probability addedcross-validationWayback MachineTango, TomSports rating systemsSabermetricsStrength of scheduleAdvanced Football AnalyticsARGH Power RatingsDickinson SystemEnglish Chess Federation gradingLitkenhous RatingsPomeroy College Basketball RatingsPythagorean expectationRating Percentage Index (RPI)TrueSkillChessmetricsGlickoUniversalAP pollFWAA-NFF Grantland Rice Super 16 PollHarris Interactive College Football PollLegends PollNAIA Coaches' PollUSA Today/Amway Coaches' PollTennis (UTR)Mark GlickmanJohn HollingerBill JamesKenneth MasseyKen PomeroyJeff SagarinNate SilverJeff SonasPeter Wolfe