Elite overproduction
[5] For Turchin, history suggests that non-violent end of elite overproduction is possible, citing the two decades after World War II in the United States, a time of economic redistribution and reversal of upward social mobility.[7] When the economy faced an expansion in the workforce, which exerted a downward pressure on wages, the elite generally kept much of the wealth generated to themselves, resisting taxation and income redistribution.[10][11] Turchin has said that elite overproduction explains social disturbances during later years of various Chinese dynasties, the late Roman empire, the French Wars of Religion, and France before the Revolution.[16] Before Turchin, political scientist Samuel Huntington had warned about a disconnect between upward social mobility and the ability of the institutions to absorb these new individuals leading to sociopolitical decay.The Rebellion was triggered by disgruntled well-educated young men, who had studied long and hard for the punishing civil-service examinations only to find themselves unable to seek lucrative government posts.[26] About a quarter of young Chinese prefer to work for the government rather than the private sector, and, in accordance with traditional Confucian belief, do not have a high opinion of manual labor.[28] In Victorian Britain, elite overproduction was overcome by outward migration, industrialization, and political reforms that gave power to a larger segment of the general public.[29] In the modern United Kingdom, there were simply not enough working-class Britons disenchanted with the status quo to support the Brexit movement, which was also buoyed by many highly educated voters,[10] many of whom were indebted and under- or unemployed, as there were not enough jobs to match their degrees.Upward social mobility was reversed, as can be seen from admissions quotas (against Jews and blacks) at Ivy League institutions and the fall of the number of medical and dental schools.[35] At the same time, students at elite colleges and universities increasingly hold highly left-wing views, putting them at odds with not just their peers at other institutions of higher learning but also the public at large.[34] In his prediction that the 2020s would be politically turbulent, Turchin used current data and the structural-demographic theory, a mathematical model of how population changes affect the behavior of the state, the elite, and the commons, created by Jack Goldstone.[39] At a time of such intense intra-elite competition, evidence of corruption, such as the college admissions scandal revealed by Operation Varsity Blues, further fuels public anger and resentment, destabilizing society.[41] And while the polarizing nature of social media can perpetuate a sense of crisis and despair, these platforms are too disjointed for a unifying figure to emerge and seize power.
Peter Turchinpower structuresocioeconomic statustrade-offsJack Goldstoneprogressiveunderemploymentlate Roman empireFrench Wars of ReligionRevolutionpolygamousFrancis BaconseditionJoseph SchumpeterSamuel Huntingtonsocial mobilityJohn Lewis GaddisGroup of EightBank of CanadaTaiping Rebellioncivil-service examinationsArab SpringVictorian BritainBrexitInstitute for Fiscal StudiesEducation in theUnited StatesHistory of education in the United StatesHistory of education in ChicagoHistory of education in KentuckyHistory of education in MassachusettsHistory of education in MissouriHistory of education in New York CityLiteracyNormal schoolsApprenticeship degreesArt educationCivic educationMusic educationLegal educationLaw schoolMedical educationMedical schoolNursing degreesEnvironmental educationLanguage educationMathematics educationSex educationVocational educationEducation policy issuesAccreditationPrimary and secondaryPost-secondaryEducational attainmentPost-secondary issuesBubbleCost and financingCredentialismStudent financial aidStudent loansCharter schoolsInequalityAchievement gapsRacial achievement gapDesegregation busingGender achievement gapHead StartSchool choiceRacial diversitySchool segregationStandards-based reformSchool corporal punishmentSchool mealsSchool violenceSexual harassmentForeign involvementSpecial educationApprenticeshipSchool-to-work transitionCommunity collegesFor-profit higher educationFor-profit collegesResearch universitiesCommunity schoolFull-service community schoolsEarly childhoodK–12PrimarySecondaryNew Dealstructural-demographic theoryProgressive EraIvy LeagueRobert Putnamcultural capitalEra of Good FeelingsCivil Warnational populistMillennialsunderemployedOccupy Wall Street relativeRichard V. ReevesBrookings InstitutionDream HoardersDavid Brookscognitive dissonanceCOVID-19 pandemicOperation Varsity BluesU.S. Census Bureauyouth bulgeAmerican population was agingHigher-education bubble in the United StatesIron law of oligarchyPower struggleBloomberg NewsBibcodeFukuyama, FrancisGaddis, John LewisTurchin, PeterTwenge, JeanThe Times