2004 Venezuelan recall referendum
[8][9] The recall mechanism was introduced into Venezuelan law in 1999 under the new Constitution drafted by the National Constituent Assembly and sanctioned by the electorate in a referendum.Most polls, including those by firms linked to the opposition which had showed low support for Chávez in 2003 and early 2004, predicted a rejection of the recall in the weeks before the referendum.[24] Journalist Fausto Malavé declared in an interview in RCR that the recording was an evident parody that had been circulating in city streets for at least two months, claiming that it was surprising that it was only brought to public attention then.[25] Coordinadora Democrática commissioned an exit poll from the American firm of Penn, Schoen & Berland, which showed Chávez losing by a 60–40 margin.However, the Center for Economic and Policy Research suggested that since the chance of sample error in the exit poll was so low and observers did not find any signs of fraud, it may have been the survey's methodology that led to the discrepancy in results.[29] Jimmy Carter said that Súmate "deliberately distributed this erroneous exit poll data in order to build up, not only the expectation of victory, but also to influence the people still standing in line".[32] Constitutional lawyer Tulio Álvarez, representative of the Coordinadora Democrática, published a preliminary report entitled "Fraud to Democracy", the result of the work of 40 professionals diversified in 14 thematic areas, concluding that "qualitative, continued, selective, massive fraud" occurred in the manual and automated procedures, for which the coalition decided to challenge the process.There are widespread reports of irregularities and evidence of fraud, many of them ably recorded by Mary Anastasia O'Grady in The Wall Street Journal last week.[37] On the afternoon of 16 August 2004, Carter and OAS Secretary General César Gaviria gave a joint press conference in which they endorsed the preliminary results announced by the CNE.The monitors' findings "coincided with the partial returns announced today by the National Elections Council" said Carter, while Gaviria added that the OAS electoral observation mission's members had "found no element of fraud in the process".Directing his remarks at opposition figures who made claims of "widespread fraud" in the voting, Carter called on all Venezuelans to "accept the results and work together for the future".[40] Regarding the recall effort, in testimony before the U.S. Senate, Maisto also pointed out that Carter had said that " 'expression of the citizen must be privileged over excessive technicalities' in resolving issues surrounding the tabulation of the signatures".[42] Economists Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard University and Roberto Rigobón of the MIT Sloan School of Management performed a statistical analysis at Súmate's request, analyzing how fraud could have occurred during the referendum."[44] The Carter Center looked into the allegations and released a paper with a statistical analysis in response; this stated that the audit sample data, in particular the statistical correlation between the number of "Yes" voters and the number of petition signatories in each audited voting centre, were consistent with nationwide results, and reaffirmed the Carter Center's earlier conclusions."[46] The sample for the audit was selected by the government controlled National Electoral Council and, according to the opposition, was not of sufficient size to be statistically reliable.Raquel Prado and Bruno Sansó examined the exit polls;[49] Luis Raul Pericchi and David A Torres examined the no-votes against the Newcomb-Benford law;[50] Isbelia Martin discovered anomalous patterns in telecommunications;[51] Ricardo Hausmann and Roberto I. Rigobón analyzed patterns related to exit polls; Raúl Jiménez examined the distribution of valid votes, null votes, and abstentions in each precinct;[52] while Gustavo Delfino and Guillermo Salas reported on the anomalous relation between signatures requesting the recall, and the yes-votes.
Politics of VenezuelaConstitutionConstitutions of StatesHuman rightsLGBT rightsAbortionLabourNationalityCapital punishmentPresidentNicolás MaduroVice PresidentDelcy RodríguezCabinetNational AssemblyDinorah FigueraJorge RodríguezSupreme Tribunal of JusticeFederal divisionsRegionsStatesGovernorsConstitutionsLegislaturesMunicipalitiesDependenciesElectionsPolitical partiesForeign relationsMinistry of Foreign AffairsDiplomatic missions ofin VenezuelaNationality lawPassportVisa requirementsVisa policyChávez's foreign policyreferendumHugo ChávezPresident of VenezuelarecalledNational Electoral Council1999 ConstitutionCoordinadora DemocráticaCarter CenterSúmateRicardo HausmannConstituent Assembly2004 Venezuelan protestsVenezuelan Supreme CourtTascón ListVenezuelan Workers ConfederationAssociated PressCaracas Metropublic hospitalsHealth MinisterJosé Vicente RangelCaracasGreenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (GQR)DatanálisisRobert Jensen2000 presidential electionJimmy CarterPenn, Schoen & Berlandsampling errorCenter for Economic and Policy ResearchDoug SchoenCésar GaviriaU.S. Department of StateJohn MaistoOrganization of American StatesHarvard UniversityMIT Sloan School of Managementthe Wall Street JournalJohns Hopkins UniversitycorrelationForeign Policy Magazinecluster analysisRaquel PradoNewcomb-Benford lawAlicia L. CarriquiryPlaza Altamira military2016 Venezuelan recall referendum project2022 Venezuelan recall referendum projectNBC NewsNational Catholic ReporterWayback MachineMiami New TimesPROVEAEl UniversalBBC NewsGaleano, EduardoNew Left ReviewCenter for Security PolicyNational Electoral Council (Venezuela)U.S. News & World ReportElections and referendums in VenezuelaPresidential electionsParliamentary electionsRegional electionsMunicipal elections1999 (Apr)1999 (Dec)VenezuelaarticlesHistoryNew GranadaCaptaincy GeneralWar of IndependenceGran ColombiareunificationRevolution of the ReformsFederal WarRevindicating Revolution1895 crisisRestorative Liberal Revolution1902–03 crisisWorld War IIEl Trienio Adeco1958 coup d'étatPuntofijo PactEl CarupanazoEl PorteñazoCaracazo1992 coup d'état attemptsVargas tragedy